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An explanation how this simulator works can be found below. Let's say you're playing the Sunday Million regularly and want to check what variance you can expect. That's how the settings can look like:. Click on Calculate and the Poker Variance Calculator does its magic.

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It simulates whatever tournament schedule you have entered over as many samples as you have entered. In our example it would simulate 50 Sunday Millions 10, times. This distribution shows the cumulative likelihood function for the results.

By clicking the the "N"-Button inside the diagram you can compare the distribution to how a normal distribution with the same expected value and standard deviation as the original distribution would look like. Poker cash game results are, if played over a couple of thousand hands, normally distributed. Playing only a few 50 in this example tournaments yields quite different results:. The next graph shows 20 sample runs from the simulation as well as the best and worst run over all samples.

In this example, in at least one sample we managed two first places not that unlikely over 10, samples and most other samples show much lower winnings.


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Lastly the Tournament Variance Simulator shows some interesting statistics, like your probability of loss, your 70, 95 and Obviously, since poker tournaments are so top-heavy it needs a lot more than just 50 tournaments to turn this ROI into a secure income. All those numbers are derived by Montecarlo simulation, thus they are not completely accurate. By clicking on "Compare tournaments" you can compare the distributions of the different tourneys you entered.

I built a web based hand range calculator: handcombos. Je trouve au contraire que c est tres fiable. I assume that the number is how much I plan to play of this format; and that the samplesize is the times I run a simulation based on this n-amounts of times I want to play?

If you have a tracker and tracked how many sng of 2. Thats why u want the computer to go through the process of playing that conserning number of tournaments a lot of times take sample size as high as possible for stable results.

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I think in this application, you need to look at it as an indicator for reliable results in all other estimates. If both are 0 which is the case for standard normal distribution you can rely better on the results then if they where different from 0. Hi, would it be possible to include spin and go? With the probabilities of jackpot i would be interested to see simulations. Which satellite do I have to select, to run a Hyper 6max with two tickets?

Thank you. Hello, First of all very interesting and useful tool… I have 1 question though. When it comes to calculating variance and SD in a non-winner take take all tournaments like 6man or 9man SNGs ,what formula or algorithm do you use to actually calculate SD for those? Very useful, thank you.

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Could you verify that? Could you add calculation of profits with cuts, commonly used in stacking now?


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  8. You just need in each profitable sample to subtract cuts. All backers will really appreciate it.

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    Right now the first diagram already shows you the probability of winning less than amount Y. You can hover over the graph to see the values. But this only shows downswings which occur at least. Your program that you created is largely what I was trying to do. How would I figure out what the probability of going on an x buy-in downswing over y sample would be?

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